It is 60 degrees here in Boston. I did vote today, as you can see if you are looking at my eye voted
sticker and it is an incredibly different situation today, in this democratic primary, as it is Super Tuesday, than it was even 72 hours ago. And let’s discuss, let’s look at where we are, look at what
we expect to happen. So the DNC establishment strategy in the last few days ahead of today’s Super Tuesday, primary is crystal clear.
Get the hell out of the race and endorsed Joe Biden. We may never know although we may, what deals were struck and what negotiations took place
over the last three to four days since Joe Biden easily won the South Carolina primary, but we have seen badge drop out and endorse Joe Biden we saw Amy lob drop out and endorsed Joe Biden
despite being likely to get a bunch of delegates in tonight’s Minnesota primary, if she were to stay in very quickly, Joe Biden gaining almost 20 points in Minnesota, thanks to the disappearance of any
“cobar as well as people. So the judge yesterday, go by rallying in Texas former presidential candidate, Beto or work known
to most of us as Roberto work also showing up to endorse Gobind. This now is a strategy. And if you don’t like it, you’ve got a vote. Because I’m gonna tell you from a strategic perspective, I was
just talking about this with a few different people from a strategic perspective. This appears to be radically boosting Joe Biden. Chances today, if you don’t like it, don’t attack the messenger get out
and vote. can join combine his momentum from overperforming in South Carolina, with the endorsements of multiple centres candidates who have pulled out and endorsed him, and he turned
that into some victories outright tonight and potentially deny Bernie Sanders the nomination. So, betting money believes that the answer is yes, the projections believed that the answer is yes,
but people are still voting today, and I wanna be as realistic as possible about this. It might work and it might not.
And what it’s going to come down to is what happens in California, what happens in North Carolina, what happens later this month, and some of the later primaries this is now a basically an
election between bite, and Bernie now, Elizabeth Warren and Michael Bloomberg still have roles to play.
They just don’t have a shot at the nomination. That’s the important thing to understand. Elizabeth Warren is still in the race in Massachusetts, it’s not likely that she wins, but it is likely that she gets
delegates. Does she get out after tonight, does she wait until later in the race? What exactly is she trying to get out of this? A month and a half ago, would have said, Warren
would be very likely to endorse Bernie Sanders Bernie would be very likely to choose Warren as a VP. I don’t think either of those things is true at this point in time. And we will see what Elizabeth
Warren’s future is after tonight, Michael Bloomberg is going to get some delegates tonight, in all 03/04/20 Page 2 of 17
davidpakmanshow20200303commercialfree likelihood, Michael Bloomberg, also doing well in the upcoming primary state of Florida, later on.
So is Bloomberg likely to get out tonight or tomorrow? I actually don’t think so although there will be pressure on him because again, Bloomberg out would further bolster Joe Biden and there’s been
a debate going on within the left, about Bernie Sanders ceiling, and it has become so tired and rot to hear corporate media talking head say Bernie’s polling 15 in a 70 or eightway race 20 might be his
ceiling and then Bernie pulls 20 and they say “Well Bernie’s pulling 20 and what is effectively a five or six candidate race? his ceiling is probably 25, then Bernie PS2, and they say, he couldn’t get
more than 30. 70% of the electorate will always be against Bernie may not be true because so far, every single one of those ceilings that has been pointed out by someone on CNN or MSNBC has
been broken through that doesn’t mean a ceiling doesn’t exist and it will be tested today, with the dropping out of any clothes or… And Pete booed, and Michael Bloomberg, a man and died a factor
in a number of nights contest. So let’s now look at the big picture.
There are a number of models in which Joe Biden tonight, could. The word is cold and it depends on you going out in voting. Biden could come out of tonight with more delegates than Bernie
Sanders, however even if he does not, it is important to look at the path forward and this is why it is imperative that if Bernie Sanders wants to continue on his path to the nomination, he doesn’t need
just some wins tonight he actually need some big wins. And I’ll tell you, in which states momentarily as you know Bernie has been leading all sorts of states including for example,
California, heading into today. But again, I’m being realistic with you when Joe BIE in One South Carolina does that built momentum?
He then gained some polling support and after that Pete and Amy dropped out and now there are people mark my words. There are people who were moving away from “bian because he’s been
embarrassingly inclusive during the campaign who are going back to bite and as they perceive him to maybe have a shot at this thing. So the question is, will it be enough? And there’s only one group
of people that can determine that people like me who went and voted today it’s people like you. Many of whom voted or will be voting, the 538 primary forecast now has reversed.
And has Joe bid and is the most likely candidate to secure 50% plus one still the most likely single scenario is no one gets a majority of the delegates before the convention that scenario ranked as
60% likely to happen according to 538 Joe BIE in now 31% likelihood of securing the nomination and Bernie Sanders down to 8%. Now, if you don’t like this, then you just have to vote.
That’s the path forward. The models I’m looking at basically have Bernie Sanders coming out anywhere from 125 or so delegates ahead potentially all the way down to tie.
My only prediction is if Bernie is ahead tonight, by under 35 delegates, I believe it actually favors by an… Because a lot of those remaining states are Southern states in which bin is likely to do well
as well as some northern states, like New York in which there will be a roughly even split the key states I’m looking at tonight. First of all, California and California Bernie’s been surging for weeks
and it is a big prize 4000, it delegates if Bernie wines, California by 17, he’s winning in some polls by 17. that is a major delegate advantage for Bernie tonight, Bernie in California by 5 or 7. the way
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the latest polls Look, it is not going to be a big delegate margin for him, and that could eat away at the delegate lead that Bernie needs coming out of tonight.
The second state, I’m looking at is North Carolina, North Carolina is much more racially diverse than the early primaries, other than South Carolina and “bian has been surging their recently “bian
margin in North Carolina. If he does win is something that I would be paying attention to. And then lastly, I believe Minnesota… Is going to be an interesting signal because Minnesota is
Amy closers home state, according to one poll done very recently from her dropping out and endorsing BIE and Biden has gone from eight in Minnesota, the 27 in Minnesota almost tying
Bernie Sanders if Minnesota is something like Bernie 32 and be in 27. the way one poll has it right now, that is going to show that the DNC strategy worked.
If this sounds bad to you if this doesn’t sound like what you want to see happen, there’s one thing you can do which is go in, vote and right now, especially if poles are about to close in your state,
and number two, get other people to go out and vote. We’ll have live stream results tonight. Don’t miss it, YouTube, Facebook, as well as Twitch look forward to seeing you there.